A Wisdom of the Crowd Approach to Forecasting
نویسنده
چکیده
The “wisdom of the crowd” effect refers to the phenomenon that the mean of estimates provided by a group of individuals is more accurate than most of the individual estimates. This effect has mostly been investigated in general knowledge or almanac types of problems that have pre-existing solutions. Can the wisdom of the crowd effect be harnessed to predict the future? We present two probabilistic models for aggregating subjective probabilities for the occurrence of future outcomes. The models allow for individual differences in skill and expertise of participants and correct for systematic distortions in probability judgments. We demonstrate the approach on preliminary results from the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES), a large-scale project for collecting and combining forecasts of many widely-dispersed individuals.
منابع مشابه
Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds
The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding , popularly known as the “wisdom of crowds”, has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd. Here, ...
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